Space & Astronomy/Space and Astronomy (October 1993).iso/mac/TEXT/SPACEDIG/V15_4/V15NO426.TXT

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Date: Mon, 16 Nov 92 05:10:14
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Subject: Space Digest V15 #426
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Space Digest                Mon, 16 Nov 92       Volume 15 : Issue 426

Today's Topics:
                  Commercial Space News #18 [Part 1]

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Date: 14 Nov 92  11:52:37
From: [e-mail]
Subject: Commercial Space News #18 [Part 1]
Newsgroups: sci.space

COMMERCIAL SPACE NEWS 18

   This is number eighteen in an irregular series on developments in
commercial space activities. The commentaries included are my
thoughts on these developments.
   This column seems to be largely influenced by changes occurring
as ex-Soviet space systems are put into the market.  I've tried to
include a few of the current developments I've been seeing, with a
little bit of commentary on each -- but I'm afraid I've only
scratched the surface of some of the changes looming in the
commercial space area.
   There's been a lot happening recently, so I'm afraid this column
came out a little longer than usual.  I hope the net will indulge me
on this....

Contents -
1- INTERSPUTNIK MOVES TO MEET MARKET FORCES
2- RUSSIAN COMMERCIAL SPACE SPECTACULAR HEADING FOR SEATTLE
3- BOOZ-ALLEN JOINS COMMERCIAL SPACE DOCKING PROJECT
4- RUSSIAN MILITARY SPACE OBSERVATION DATA ON THE MARKET
5- GEORGIA CONSIDERING COMMERCIAL LAUNCH SITE
6- SMALL LAUNCHERS, SMALL SATELLITES
7- RUMORS AGAIN THAT GD'S COMMERCIAL LAUNCH BUSINESS IS FOR SALE
8- PRATT & WHITNEY TO SELL RUSSIAN SPACE ENGINES IN U.S.
9- ARIANESPACE SQUAWKS ON PROTON PRICES
10- INDIA PLANS TO ENTER COMMERCIAL SPACE FIELD
FINAL NOTES - Commentary

ARTICLES
 ----------------------------------------------------------------
1- INTERSPUTNIK MOVES TO MEET MARKET FORCES
   Intersputnik is one of the remnants of the ex-Soviet Empire.
Originally set up as a competitor to Intelsat, Intersputnik still 16
member states, and was set up to provide international
telecommunications throughout the Soviet Bloc.  As the Soviet Empire
disintegrated, Intersputnik has survived as an operational
organization, changing to provide international telecommunications
between the new democracies of Eastern Europe and the new nations of
the ex-Soviet Union.
   But, times are a-changing at Intersputnik.  Intersputnik
capabilities to provide satellite communications services will get a
big boost in 1993 or 1994 when its old ex-Soviet GEO communications
satellites are supplemented with a new generation of Russian
"Express" geostationary communications satellites.  These satellites
are being sponsored through a Russian consortium called "Inform
Kosmos", which includes the spacecraft manufacturer NPO-PM, Russian
launcher organizations, and a newly-formed RUssian bank.  Most of
the financing of Inform Kosmos seems to be "in-kind" barter, with
much of the financing upon commitments to take satellite capacity.
(As an aside, NPO-PM is based in Karsnoyarska-26, one of the
previously "secret" military towns of the Soviet Union, and
reportedly cannot be reached by telephone from the West.)
    As the Express satellites gradually replace the Gorizont
satellites in GEO, Intersputnik has commitments to "lease" capacity
on them -- in particular the Express satellites at 14 deg W and 80
deg E will be heavily used by Intersputnik.  Each of the Express
satellites will provide 10 C-Band and 2 Ku-band transponders, of
which Intersputnik will take 8 C-Band and both Ku-band.
Intersputnik, and its existing market base, is the key driver for
these new systems.
    Since last year Intersputnik has been a hard currency operation,
with users of Intersputnik capacity payment by participants paying
by percentage of capability used. (This is also how Intelsat and
Eutelsat operate).  This infusion of hard currency from Intersputnik
to Inform Kosmos, payable as the satellite capability is used, is
the key to making the Express satellite system a reality.  However,
some new CIS states are wanting to change this to allow payment in
local currency, since they are very short of hard currency.
    Interestingly enough, Germany is now seen as the major player in
Intersputnik.   As East Germany was reunited with West Germany, the
West German Deutsche Bundespost Telekom (DBT) became the German
representative in Intersputnik.  Now of all the members of
Intersputnik, Germany is the only one with plentiful supplies of
hard currency, and it is apparently taking a major role in
Intersputnik -- particularly through their control of hard currency
finances in the organization.
    This heavy participation in Intersputnik by the DBT has caused
some waves in Western Europe among Eutelsat and Intelsat.  While
Intersputnik's annual revenues are only about 2% that of Intelsat's
(according to Deutsche Bundespost Telekom), their rates are also
reported to be substantially lower than that of Eutelsat or Intelsat
in providing broadcast and telecommunications services.
   Eutelsat's primary market is in broadcasting for Western Europe,
which accounts for two thirds of its revenues.  If Intersputnik were
to provide competing services, their market could very rapidly
erode.  Similarly, Intelsat's services could be challenged in
Central and Eastern Europe by Intersputnik services.
   At the moment Intersputnik seems to be focusing upon the niche
market of serving Eastern Europe, the CIS, and Russia.  But the DBT
is also considering using the new generation of Express satellites
to satisfy the need for a follow-on domestic German communications
system to replace the DFS-Kopernicus satellite system.   Also in the
works is the "Romantis" system, which is backed by 4 major German
firms (Daimler-Benz, DASA, Bosch-ANT, and DBT) and Russian groups.
Romantis would provide satellite services using Intersputnik,
Intelsat or Eutelsat channels, and could provide another channel for
Intersputnik to enter the European market for satellite services.
   [Commentary:  Intersputnik is potentially an interesting player
in the European telecommunications market.  They have a substantial
installed base, have good ties to state-of-the-art space systems
through Inform Kosmos, and have a good market position in a niche
market.  That market, providing telecommunications services to the
ex-Soviet Block, is expected to grow substantially as the new
national economies shape up and begin substantial economic growth.
If their ties with the DBT are used, they might also have a key
opening through the German domestic market into the core European
telecommunications market - either directly through the DBT, or
through an integrated approach with the "Romantis" system.
   In either case, Intersputnik can be expected to continue to be a
major player in the Eastern European/CIS telecommunications market
and a potential competitor to Intelsat and Eutelsat in Europe.]

2-RUSSIAN COMMERCIAL SPACE SPECTACULAR HEADING FOR SEATTLE
   If all goes as planned, on 16 Nov, a Russian Soyuz rocket will
launch the "Space Flight Europe-America 500" mission.  Five days
later, a reentry capsule will be targeted to splash down in
international waters 200 miles west of Seattle, Washington.  It will
be retrieved by a Russian missile-tracking ship and towed back for
exhibition in the Port of Seattle. It should arrive in Seattle on 26
Nov.  Space in the reentry capsule is being sold to carry samples of
Russian, European and American products.  This goodwill mission is
being organized partially to celebrate the 500th anniversary of
Columbus's voyage to the Americas, and partially to demonstrate the
commercial potential for Russian rocketry.  The flight has been
endorsed by Russian President Boris Yeltsin and the city of Seattle.
   The project was started by an ex-Soviet space firm, Photon, and
an independent Russian group called the 'Foundation for Social
Innovation'. In a published statement, foundation chief Gennady
Alferenko said the flight "will link the ex-U.S.S.R. and the U.S.A.
in a celebration of a new era in global political and economic
relations. "  The statement also claims the flight is planned to
promote the conversion of military technology to civilian uses and
Russia's budding entrepreneurial class.  The foundation said it
plans to set up a Russian-American Trade Co. to boost trade.
   Organizers of "Europe-America 500" said the project was being
financed by private Russian entrepreneurs.  The released press
statement said the cost was equivalent to $250 million, although the
exact amount in rubles was not stated.  Furthermore, the organizers
said they were being assisted by the former Soviet space and defense
ministries, both of which are desperate for foreign investment in
their nearly bankrupt state-owned factories.
   In a decree signed in August, Yeltsin authorized the Russian
space agency to conduct the flight, the Foreign Ministry to make
``political arrangements'' and the Information Ministry to handle
official publicity, organizers said. The Russian government and the
Russian "League of Defense Industries" are bearing some of the cost
by allowing use of the once-secret Plesetsk cosmodrome, a Soyuz
launch rocket and capsule, space tracking facilities and the
tracking ship.
    Payload in the Photon reentry capsule includes "gifts, publicity
items and cultural, spiritual and environmental messages from
prominent personalities, including President Yeltsin and the Dalai
Lama, according to "Europe-America 500". Among the items will be
"Digswell the Space Dog," a stuffed toy representing a character
from the British cartoon "The Shoe People".
    The welcome in Seattle to the Russian tracking ship with the
Photon capsule on board is being coordinated by Bob Walsh, former
promoter of the Goodwill Games. He said in a statement in Seattle
the capsule's arrival would be turned into "the world's biggest
Thanksgiving celebration."  After the celebration, the Photon
capsule will be given to the Boeing Museum of Flight to be put on
display.
   [Commentary: This is an interesting event.  I originally wasn't
going to include this as I couldn't figure out if it was really a
'commercial' space event or not,  but it's strange enough it
deserves mention.  As a promotional event for Russian commercial
space products, it's an interesting idea.  But I don't think it's
going to generate a large amount of positive press.
   To justify the "equivalent to $250 M" cost, this event really
should be promoted across the board in the US and Europe -- TV
coverage, corporate sponsorship, big names waiting breathlessly for
the capsule to splash down on live TV, etc. However, I really
haven't noticed a big PR campaign to support it or a even lot of
attention being paid to it in the industry.  Maybe this is going on
and I'm just not clued into the right PR channels, or maybe there's
a big PR campaign being planned for mid-November.  But at the
moment, I'm not seeing the requisite accompanying PR to make such a
"commercial" venture a success.]

3- BOOZ-ALLEN JOINS COMMERCIAL SPACE DOCKING PROJECT
   In mid-October, Booz-Allen & Hamilton and the Space Automation &
Robotics Center (SpARC) center announced they will move forward with
the commercial development and demonstration of an autonomous
satellite rendezvous and docking system.
   The NASA-sponsored Centers for the Commercial Development of
Space (CCDSs) have been investing to try to commercialize the
development of space infrastructure and technologies.  SpARC is a
CCDS originally funded by NASA and industrial partners to develop
robotic and automated space systems.
   About $ 5M has been invested into the project to date, with half
coming from NASA and half from Booz-Allen.  This funding has
developed a design based upon off-the shelf technologies that will
be demonstrated on the first and second COMET (Commercial Orbital
Materials Experiment Transporter) missions, also sponsored by the
NASA CCDS system.
   The system consists of a passive grapple platform which will be
launched on the first COMET vehicle, planned for 1993.  When the
return payload is separated, the orbital bus will remain on orbit as
the target for the second COMET flight.  The second COMET mission,
planned for 1994 or 1995, will carry a mobile servicing
demonstration unit and the more complex active docking system.  It
incorporates a GPS receiver for navigation, a video-base sensor for
proximity operations, a compliant single-point docking mechanism,
and a payload exchange mechanism to demonstrate on-orbit servicing.
When the two sections dock, the mechanism will demonstrate fluid and
payload transfer, with the active mechanism pumping a fluid-
simulating gas into the passive mechanism and retrieving a mock
payload package from it with a robotic device.
   While the projected costs for the docking and rendezvous units
have not yet been revealed, David Conrad, the SpARC center director
said the devices, which can be scaled to different spacecraft sizes,
will cost "well under a million" dollars each. Ed Cornet, Booz-
Allen's Space System Division Vice President added "This could be a
real moneymaker."
   Apparently, the low projected prices are based upon extensive use
of off-the-shelf-hardware.  Moog Space Systems of Buffalo, New York
has adapted leak-proof connectors for the system by adapting
connectors being built for Space Station Freedom.  Oceaneering Space
Systems of Houston, Texas developed the robotic arm to exchange
payloads based upon systems used in underwater oil platform
servicing. Ashtech of Palo Alto, California supplied the GPS
receiver, based upon existing product line.  And Rockwell Space
Systems Division is working on a laser-based 3-D ranging system for
final docking, originally designed for the Shuttle.  The overall
system design is patented by SpARC.
   If this venture is successful, a portion of the profits will be
retained by SpARC and plowed back into R&D.  This would allow the
center to become self-supported outside of NASA funding.  SpARC
director Conrad said the center's mission is to identify and address
technical choke points in space infrastructure.  Should the docking
system allow independent funding of the center, "we can do that more
effectively and without NASA's help, which is what they [NASA]
intended all along" for the CCDS program.
   [Commentary:  This looks like a good venture for the CCDS system.
Recent criticisms of the NASA-sponsored CCDS system have focused on
the expected continuing support of the CCDS system by NASA.  Some
centers have not been very active in searching out industrial
partners nor actively pursuing commercially-viable products.  Other
centers have been instrumental in some very interesting and
innovative commercial ventures, including the COMET program, the
Consort series of microgravity experiment launches, some innovative
remote sensing techniques, biological processing systems for space,
and some materials experiment technologies.
   This project has the promise of being a very successful venture
in some satellite markets.  The passive interface needed to enable
this docking and rendezvous system only weighs about 30 lbs.  While
this weight penalty has been criticized by GEO communications
satellite operators where every pound of the satellite must
contribute directly to added revenue, other LEO satellite designers
and operators have been very interested.
   Interestingly, Booz-Allen seems to be taking a different approach
to incorporating the docking/rendezvous system into the satellite.
Booz-Allen is primarily an international consulting agency.  Rather
than pursuing a path to convince satellite manufacturers to include
their device as added dead weight, BA seems to be approaching the
financial and insurance markets.
   Adding the passive half of the mechanism to a satellite before
launch would greatly aid in rescue in case of a malfunction.
Similarly, a LEO constellation equipped with these interfaces could
be refueled and have their payloads exchanged or upgraded by a few
active servicing buses.  Booz-Allen and the SpARC are trying
apparently trying to promote a reduction in the insurance rate or
perceived financial risks of satellites equipped with their passive
mechanism.
   If successful, this approach could allow a market of several
hundred potential mechanisms -- between Iridium and other LEO
communications constellations, other LEO satellites, and potential
government systems as Brilliant Eyes or Brilliant Pebbles.
   I would not expect the market for such autonomous servicing
systems to take off until the late 1990s.  Most of the potential
constellation customers aren't planning launches until post-1995.
Given a successful demonstration in 1995, initial launches of
compatible docking mechanisms might start taking place within a year
or two.]

4- RUSSIAN MILITARY SPACE OBSERVATION DATA ON THE MARKET
   [Ran across a couple of interesting notes, with interesting
ramifications.]
   Central Trading Systems in Arlington, Texas has a new product.
Digitized, very high resolution Russian "Earth Observations" data.
This data showed up about a month ago when some demonstration data
was circulated within the industry to see if there was some interest
in buying it.  Folks who've analyzed the data say it's in the 1.5-2
meter resolution range.
   At that resolution, you can pick out the Christmas tree in front
of the White House, or pick out individual cars in the Pentagon
parking lot on the demo tapes data.  Some rumors circulating in the
industry claim the data could have even a higher resolution quality,
but the data has been poorly digitized from photos.  This data is
obvious from a former "strategic asset" of the Soviet Union.
   Central Trading systems, can't identify what satellite generated
the photo data, but that the Russians call it a "DD5" system, for
Digital Data 5.  As a representative of the data seller Central
Trading Systems is offering global coverage with an extensive data
archive of digital images.  If the scenes are in the archive,
customers can have the images on data tapes within 2 weeks,
delivered by Federal Express.  If new scenes are required, they can
be delivered with 45 days, weather permitting. Central Trading
Systems thinks the data is delivered digitally in Russian,
transferred to photos, and then re-digitized.  His offers the
possibility that resolution can improve as more advanced digitizing
and image processing systems are applied.
   Cost for the data is $3180 (including shipping and handling) for
a 13 x 13 Km, 8-bit scene, of 40 mps at 1600 bpi.  Demand is
reportedly high.
   As a side note, on 2 October, a top Russian space commander
stated the Russian military space program will only survive by
sharing its expertise and hardware.  Col General Vladimir Ivanov was
quoted in a Krasnaya Zvezda interview as recommending Russian
military space systems be used for commercial and civilian purposes.
In particular, he was reported to have stated "Reconnaissance
satellites can be successfully used for long-distance probing of the
Earth's surface and for ecological monitoring without impairing
their main task."
   [Commentary: New competition in the Earth Resources market area.
There are reportedly warehouses of high-resolution Earth observation
data on both sides of the ex-Iron curtain.  Different organizations
have been selling ex-Soviet observation data in the 10-meter
resolution class, but the data availability and market response has
been poor, partially because the data was only available
sporadically or only in photographic form.  (For obvious reasons,
the preference if for data in digital format.)
    But if true, a marketable archive of global 2 meter or better
data could be a market gold mine. And the Krasnaya Zveda quote could
indicate regular availability to high-resolution data from Russian
military systems could become official policy and routine.
   SPOT and Landsat data is about an order of magnitude more coarse,
with some gaps in the digital data coverage available.  The Russian
data prices are also very competitive. I expect if the initial
expectations are proven for this Russian data, then it will capture
a large share of the market within a few years.
   Again, there can be a substantial commercial market pact from an
ex-Soviet system.  Due to policy considerations, the US government
has been reticent to release high-resolution Earth Observation data,
and has encouraged the use of 100-meter resolution Landsat Data for
commercial or non-critical government needs.  It was only last month
the US Department of Defense even officially revealed the existence
of the office which controlled such space assets.
   Similarly, SPOT, which has a very large ownership share by the
French government, has not striven to achieve the maximum resolution
in its system.  A higher resolution has been expected in the French
military HELIOS observation system under development.
   Perhaps the sale of high-resolution Russian data will encourage
the release of high resolution data by Western governments.  But
this will also decimate the existing SPOT or Landsat/EOSAT data
markets, when they still have not reached a critical mass for full
commercial viability.  The best result would be the encouragement of
the construction of commercial Western systems with equivalent
capability, which is well within the capability of the industry.
   As it stands now, there are still significant unknowns in the
future of commercial Earth observations data.  This new source of
data, if it is proven as reliable and accurate, could substantially
change some of the market assumptions for Earth resources data.]

5- GEORGIA CONSIDERING COMMERCIAL LAUNCH SITE
   On 6 Oct, Georgia Tech Research Institute and Camden County,
Georgia kicked off a preliminary study into the feasibility of
locating a commercial launch site on Georgia's coast.  [For those
international readers, this is the US state of Georgia.] The study
is primarily looking at the area around the old Kingsland Missile
Test Launching site last used in the 1960's and is being financed
through GTRI and the local chamber of commerce for $10,000.  If this
quick preliminary study shows a positive result, a second phase
study taking 5 or 6 months will be started.  Current estimates to
reactivate the Kingsland site and the 4,000 acres of land
surrounding it are $3-3.5 M.
   [Commentary: It seems like everyone is trying to get into the
commercial launch site business in the US.  So far I've seem
commercial launch sites proposed for California, Hawaii, Virginia,
Alaska, Texas, Florida, Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia.  I also
note that Adm. Dick Truly, the ex-NASA administrator, has accepted a
position as head of the GTRI since this study was announced.
   What's got me puzzled is I really haven't seen an accompanying
surge in demand for commercial launches.  Delta and Atlas are locked
into their complex support systems at KSC and VAFB.  Taurus and
Orbex and Conestoga are candidates -- but the real demand for them
is still small.
   Now, if we get Orbcomm and Iridium and all of the other smallsat
LEO constellations you might have enough business to justify a new
commercial site.  But I think a new, all-commercial site can't be
financially justified by the little "real" traffic on the books.
   Having been pessimistic in the short term, I believe a purely
commercial site makes good financial and business sense in the long
term.  Current launch sites are primarily designed to operate for
government customers, and commercial users take a back seat to
government operations.  There have been numerous complaints about
how foreign customers of US launchers have been treated by security-
conscious KSC, and how commercial launch operations are treated as
second class citizens at KSC.  COMET has even had problems with
NASA's Wallops Island launch site operations.
   One of the problems with establishing a new launch site is the
infrastructure needed for a new site.  This includes the physical
equipment of power, water, road/rail/ barge access, the specialized
facilities of payload clean rooms, gantries, fuel storage, telemetry
and data, and the non-physical infrastructure of permits,
regulations and local operational agreements.  This costs money.
   As space launch vehicles have downsized to meet the smallsat
markets, the physical infrastructure requirements for supporting
small launch vehicles have also shrunk.  But the regulatory
environment has greatly expanded, and the required costs for this
have greatly increased.  The Hawaiian launch site for example, has
been trying to get an environmental impact statement written for
about a year now, without success.  Similarly, the Florida small
suborbital launch site at Cape San Blas was held up for over a year
getting environmental permits.   To start up a commercial launch
site will require support from the local areas, the state, and
probably a "committed" major customer.
   Right now, there is really only one commercial launch site in the
US -- Poker Flats in Alaska, operated by the University of Alaska,
which is specializing in high inclination, small satellite launches.
   To be commercially viable, new sites must first meet a myriad of
regulatory barriers and then be able to capture enough of a
commercial launch market to justify the required investment.  I have
some serious doubts new commercial launch sites will be shown to be
sound investments until more of the commercial market materializes.
Perhaps this will occur over the next several years as LEO smallsat
constellations are financed and approved.  But until then, I think
pessimism is probably the proper approach to such investments.]

6- SMALL LAUNCHERS, SMALL SATELLITES
  [Some notes on small sat constellations and small launchers...]
  Some months ago, Arianespace was reported to be looking at
devising an Ariane derivative vehicle specifically designed to serve
the smallsat launch market.  However, Ariane's market forecast was
this market was too small to justify the development of a special
derivative vehicle.
   Meanwhile, several other European organizations are working to
develop new smallsat launchers.  Italy's Gilarini is reported to
developing a "Zefiro", a new solid booster for the Scout vehicle.
The Zefiro could be ready for qualification flights in late 1995.
   INTA in Spain is reportedly looking for international partners to
develop the Capricornia launcher, a 3 stage small vehicle capable of
putting 100 Kg into LEO.  This effort is operating us about $ 30 M
of initial funding which is expected to support development efforts
through 1995.
   And back in France, CNES, the French government space agency, is
examining two Ariane 5 Light Derivatives (ALD) which could launch
1,000-4,000 Kg into Polar, sunsynchronous orbits.  (A 4 stage "ALD-
S" could launch 4 tonnes into 800 km sun-synchronous polar, while
the 3 stage "ALD-P" could likewise launch 1-tonne payloads.)
   Also in France, Aerospatiale and DGA, the office of the French
national military space efforts, is looking at developing a small
all-solid launch vehicle based upon motors from the French M4
submarine launched missile as the "E4L" (350 Kg into 500 km orbit)
and the "E4P" (500 Kg into 500 km orbit).
   As news in smallsat networks, a new Russian-Ukrainian company has

proposed to built and launch a network of small LEO satellites.  The
firm "Ariadne" proposed a constellation of 25 small LEO satellites,
with the satellites to be built in Russia and launched by Tsyklon
rockets manufactured in the Ukraine.
   Also in Russia, Lavotchinin association with the Bababin
proposing a global LEO smallsat "Courier" comsat system.  As
reported in the trade press, the system (also called "Convert" for
"envelope" in Russian( would consist of up to 60, 2000 Kg satellites
in 870 Km orbits), capable of relaying up to 40,000 two-way voice
channels, and up to 5,000 digital links for up to 5 million
subscribers. The satellites are proposed to be launched on Zenit
rockets in groups of 6 [probably an entire constellation plane at
once], with replacements to be launched singly using a modified SS-
18 ICBM.  As reported, this system could be fully operational by
1998, if funding and approvals are obtained.
   Not to be outdone, CNES, the French National Space Agency, is
also studying a global LEO smallsat constellation for mobile
position reporting and remote sensing monitoring.  The "TAOS" system
would be a constellation of five 150 kg satellites in 1200 km
circular orbits.  The satellite platform is reportedly being
designed by Aerospatiale and Alcatel Espace, and the payload by
Alcatel Espace and Dassault Electronique.
   And Belgium is proposing a Belgian-run program to develop
minisatellites for science and technology research.  Called MERCATOR
(Miniaturized EuRopean Carrier for Applications of Telescience in
ORbit), they would be designed to accommodate 50-70 Kg payloads for
up to a year in LEO (200-300 Km). Verhaert Design and Development of
Belgium estimates that approximately $ 65 M (US) would be required
for two demonstration satellites as piggyback Ariane payloads.
Belgium would put up $42 M of the total, with other European
countries providing the other $23 M.  This program is expected to be
proposed at the mid-November ESA Minister's meeting in Granada,
Spain by Belgium's Minister for Science Policy, Jean-Maurice
Dehousses.
  [Commentary: This article was primarily just to tag some of the
new international smallsat launcher and LEO constellation efforts
I've seen recent mention of.  In several past CSN columns, I've
noted several others.
   What this seems to be showing is smallsats have generated quite a
bit of international interest.  I think you can break this
international interest down into two areas: market interest, and
lowered barriers.  The barriers for getting into the smallsat
launcher game have come down to a point where organizations in
numerous countries have decided they could, technically, provide a
launcher.  An incomplete listing of countries (other than the usual
suspects in the US, and Russia) interested in smallsat launchers
includes Japan, India, South Korea, Australia, South Africa, Israel,
France, Spain, Sweden, Italy, Canada, Brazil, Argentina, and the
Ukraine.   The current state-of-the-art has advanced to the point
where small, all-solid vehicles are pretty simple to produce --
including well understood engineering principles and approaches with
"cookbook" solutions to the engineering problems encountered and the
availability of "off the shelf" avionics and systems component from
the commercial market or from national military programs.
   Concurrently, satellite technology has advanced to the point
where small satellites can offer attractive capabilities in small
packages and when smallsat launchers begin to look attractive for
providing significant benefits.  And the market looks very rosy in
providing a sufficient number of smallsat launchers such that an
investment in a new smallsat launcher looks reasonable.
   Unfortunately, the market still has not tested these new smallsat
launchers -- either in their cost/performance, in their primary
market.  Much of the predicted future market for smallsats is tied
to the success of LEO smallsat constellations providing global
telephone and messaging services.  This market is not yet
established, and the number and size of participants cannot be
predicted.
   Even if the LEO communications/positioning constellation market
is a success, the nature of "global" services is such that global
competition many drive numerous, smaller, marginal firms out of the
marketplace, reducing the market to only several, large competing
global service providers.  For example, one of the Russian systems
being proposed (see above) seems to be a clone of Iridium, but
without the ground systems and links to existing telecommunications
structure that Iridium is proposing.
   With about 2 dozen smallsat launcher firms talking about
competing for this market, it seems we can expect cutthroat
competition, from which many may not survive.
   There may be other niche markets to which smallsat launch
ventures can address themselves, or they may rely primarily upon
"national" payloads, but I think we are seeing a potential glut of
excess capability in the international smallsat launch market.]

7- RUMORS AGAIN THAT GD'S COMMERCIAL LAUNCH BUSINESS IS FOR SALE
   General Dynamics, one of the two largest providers of commercial
launch services in the US, is rumored to be looking to sell off its
"core businesses".  After a reorganization and restructuring in
1991, General Dynamic's Chairman William Anders established the GD
corporate strategy to sell off "non core businesses".  These core
businesses in military aircraft, submarines, armored vehicles, and
space launch vehicles were to be maintained, while other businesses
in areas such as missiles, aircraft parts production, and light
aircraft were sold. Beginning in early 1992, 7 divisions of General
Dynamics Corporation were placed up for sale.
   In results posted to the third quarter of 1992, General Dynamics
has made one third more money selling off units than from the four
core business areas. Through 30 Sep, GD earned $365 M in
divestitures, while the core businesses earned $272 M.  This has
resulted in substantial increases in the GD's stock price, as the
value of each share was swollen by the increased cash and profits
from these sales.
   Of the core businesses, only the Space Launch Systems Division is
running a net loss.  In the second quarter, it posted a $7 M loss
(on sales of $122 M), and in the third quarter posted a loss of $11
M (on sales of $163 M). While sales have close to doubled since
1991, the unit is still showing a loss.
   Now, General Dynamics is rumored to be looking to sell some of
its core businesses. In particular, it is rumored Lockheed or
Northrup is looking to buy their military aircraft division, in
specific, to provide production facilities for the YF-22 "ATF"
program.  And rumors are flying that GD is also looking to sell off
its space launch business, since it is the steady money-loser of the
core businesses.
  [Commentary:  Rumors of GD selling off their space launch business
have been rife in the industry from the past year.  While GD has
invested substantial funds into their Atlas launcher, they have yet
to see a return on that investment.  And while they have been
positioning themselves to win a big chunk of the USAF/NASA "NLS"
program (including relocating 400+ persons to Huntsville, Alabama to
be near the NASA NLS program office), the cancellation of the NLS
has made that investment and positioning a moot point.  And two
recent failures have made users wary of committing to the Atlas
launcher for future use until that problem can be completely
resolved.
   In such an environment rumors are inevitable.  I have seen no
really credible data which indicates GD is looking to unload their
Space Launch Business segment.  But I have heard numerous rumors.
   GD is probably the #1 commercial launch firm in the US, based
upon sales and market share  (I'll haven't run the number recently
to verify that) and probably #2 in the world.  GD's launch business
is potentially very valuable -- IF they can resolve nagging
reliability problems with the Atlas, IF they can maintain a strong
and aggressive international marketing program to bring in new
business, IF they can staunch the flow of losses from their
division, and IF the US commits to a new, larger launch vehicle and
GD wins a share of that effort.  But these are significant questions
in the current environment.
   I have no doubt the idea of selling off the Commercial Launch
Business has been considered within GD corporate staff, and I have
no doubt other firms have looked at it as a potential acquisition.
Stay tuned -- this question hasn't yet been resolved.]

8- PRATT & WHITNEY TO SELL RUSSIAN SPACE ENGINES IN U.S.
   On 26 October, Pratt & Whitney announced an agreement with the
Russian enterprise NPO Energomash for the rights to market a variety
of the Russian concern's products -- including the RD-170 engine,
the tri-propellant RD-701 engine, and a variety of engine components
and materials technologies.
   Of the products now offered on the US market, the RD-170 is
expected to draw the most attention.  The RD-170 is a 4 chamber,
LOX/kerosene engine that, with over 1.6 M lbs of thrust, is claimed
to the be most powerful liquid-fueled engine in the world. Boris
Katorgin, general director of NPO Energomash, said the Russian
enterprise has "lots" of the engines in current inventory and is
ready to make a deal.
   NPO Energomash and P&W had worked together previously on the Cape
York Australian spaceport project, and had some experience in
working together.  Katorgin stated in a press conference on the
agreement that NPO Energomash desired a U.S. partner that knows how
to do business with the U.S. government.
   The primary target for the new ventures was identified at the
press conference as providing the boost engine for a powerful liquid
strap-on boosters for a future U.S. heavy lift launch vehicle.
   While this plan was conceded to be possibly derailed by the
congressional termination order for the current National Launch
System (NLS), both parties are reported to believe the US will
eventually develop some sort of heavy lift vehicle, for which they
are positioning their engines as low-cost, off-the-shelf systems.
   Also offered, the tri-propellant RD-701 engine has sparked some
interest.  The engine is designed to operate with LOX, liquid
hydrogen and kerosene -- or LOX and liquid hydrogen.  Engine thrust
is expected to be 900 Klbs in tri-propellant mode, and 357 Klbs in
dual propellant mode, and is designed to shift from one mode to the
other without interruption.  In particular, application of this
system to the advanced small air-launched or Single-Stage-to-Orbit
vehicles were discussed.  However, Katorgin conceded development
funds for this effort are drying up, and NPO Energomash is looking
for other sources of funds to complete the engine's development.
Pratt & Whitney expressed interest in the Russian technology, and is
offering the existing technology to US industry, but did not commit
to funding the RD-701 development program itself.
   [Commentary:  This event was of particular interest since P&W was
one of the consortium team members that was developing the STME
(Space Transportation Main Engine) for the NLS.  The STME was being
designed to be the mainstay of the US space launch effort for the
next decade, and P&W, Rocketdyne, and Aerojet were working together
to develop the engine.  Now, P&W is offering up a low-cost
competitor.
   It should also be noted, that Rocketdyne has already dusted off
the US F-1 engine and upgraded the design to the F-1A, to offer a
US-built large booster engine.  If there will be a new booster
program arising from ashes of NLS, it will be probably be powered by
one of these two engines.
   The RD-701 engine is an interesting development.  Apparently the
engine was designed to power the "MAKS"small air-launched
spaceplane.  That program, while continuing on in a very low level
in conjunction with some Western organizations, has also been
drastically scaled back.  This engine, in its current state, is well
in advanced of the current US state of the art.  While the US has
conducted a variety of small tests as part of the STBE (Space
Transportation Booster Engine) program from the late 1980's, that
program was dramatically curtailed in favor of the STME.
   It is important to note, however, that the RD-701 is not yet
ready for sale.  Any firm or venture looking to use this engine will
still have to provide some unspecified amount of funds to prove out
the concept and ready it for production.  As such, it is an
interesting technology opportunity, particularly for SSTO options,
but it is not yet ready to enter commercial operations.]

9- ARIANESPACE SQUAWKS ON PROTON PRICES
   Arianespace has taken aim at the Russian offering of Proton
rockets for Western satellite launches.  In a recent press
conference, Chairman Charles Bigot of Arianespace, took aim at the
Russian pricing policies.  Bigot claimed the Russian bid for launch
of up-coming Inmarsat satellite was believed to be "60% less" than
Western bids, and warned customers to be prudent about looking at
the total price of the launch.
   "We say be prudent, because finally, if you analyze the cost of
the Proton or the cost of the Long March we are sure there are a lot
of things to add to the so-called price," he said. "And finally we
are not sure that certain important parameters, the quality and so
on, are in these two launchers, at the right level."
    Bigot claimed that the "true price" of the launchers might be
much higher than the prices currently quoted. He stated he had seen
data that 600,000 workers were involved in launch vehicle operations
in Russia, when only 20,000 to 30,000 probably would suffice. Bigot
claimed the Russians "... don't know the cost so they make up the
price."
   He further cautioned the international commercial space community
that current negotiations over the "rules of the road" for Russian
participation in space markets are very critical, and suggested that
the offer of future Western/Russian space cooperation be used to
force concessions for more realistic market-pricing polices on the
Russian government.
   Bigot also labeled as "criminal" the reported action of Chinese
launch controllers who ordered ground support personnel into action
to "safe" a Long March booster which had just failed to launch. The
personnel had to brave toxic fumes to deactivate the booster, and it
was reported that several hundred workers had been treated for
exposure to the highly toxic vapors from the failed launch.
   [Commentary:  This article is primarily included to show
international attention has been drawn to the impact of sales of
Russian (and Chinese) boosters in the world launch market.  These
sentiments have been echoed by US launch firms.
   In particular, Ariane is feeling the heat from potential Russian
competition, since they hold a 50-60% world market share for
commercial launches, and such launches count for 75% or more of
their launch business.  They predict the Russian government could
pick up at least 50% of the competitive world market, and
potentially more than 75%.  If so, and the other relative market
shares remain the same, then Ariane could see their 50% market share
drop to 15%.  In other terms, since Ariane is launching
approximately 10 launches per year, Russian competition could reduce
the Ariane launch rate to 3-4 per year.
   In light of this potential impact, it is not surprising that
Arianespace has started a campaign against the "predatory" pricing
they perceive from Proton.
   Interestingly enough, almost concurrently with this campaign by
Arianespace, the ESA council of ministers committed ESA to working
with the Russians to examine future cooperative space ventures.  ESA
is also directly supporting Arianespace, by funding the development
of the Ariane-5, and member states of ESA have strong financial and
organizational ties to Arianespace (I believe CNES, the French
national space agency, is a major stockholder in Arianespace.)
   I have not heard it suggested within Europe the funding
recommended for ESA/Russian or European/Russian cooperative ventures
be tied to Russian space market reforms or successful completion of
"rules of the road" trade negotiations.  Until that happens, I do
not believe that the Europeans are taking market availability of
Russian boosters as a serious issue.]

10- INDIA PLANS TO ENTER COMMERCIAL SPACE FIELD
   In several recent published report, the Government of India is
setting up a commercial firm to promote the export of Indian space
systems and components. The office would be be comprised of
prominent businessmen and industrialists in addition to various ISRO
officials, and targeted to capture at least 1 percent of the global
space market.  While specific information is sparse, it has been
speculated in the trade press that this firm would operate as a
government-chartered organization to act as a clearinghouse for
space technology developed by the Indian Space Research Organization
and other Indian firms supplying it, as well as enabling other
countries to consult with ISRO and other Indian experts on
application of space technologies to their economies.
   In late September Rangarajan Kumaramangalam, the Indian Minister
of State for Science and Technology, told the BBC that India has
been approached by several countries to export space technology, and
to launch other nation's satellites on the Indian space launchers
now in development.
   [Commentary: With little fanfare, India has been working to
develop space technology and apply it in India.  The ISRO (Indian
Space Research Organization) has been very successful in adapting
space technology for specific applications in communications, remote
sensing, and satellite broadcasting with very significant results.
These results have been very closely watched by other countries,
with several other countries now beginning to emulate the successful
Indian example.
   As part of this effort, India has been actively building up its
national expertise and capability in satellite systems, the
necessary ground infrastructure, and space launch vehicles.
However, this process was recently disrupted when the US placed the
ISRO under technology sanction due to a transfer of cryogenic engine
technology from Glavkosmos in Russia to the ISRO.  The US claimed
this technology transfer violated the Missile Technology Control
Regime (MTCR) due to the potential application of large cryogenic
rocket engines for ICBMs, while ISRO and Glavkosmos claimed the
technology would only be used for civilian users.  Both India and

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End of Space Digest Volume 15 : Issue 426
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